ISSUE 256 : Wednesday, July 28, 2009

I have been around for entirely too long to believe in anything proceeded by or followed by the phrase “research indicates.” I’m not saying that numbers lie. I firmly believe that 2 + 2 does indeed = 4. However, every equation above or beyond that one is subject to reasonable doubt in my book. And I am not alone in my refusal to suspend disbelief. Recently, none other than Mr. Bob Lutz, CMO of “The New GM” stated about a new Buick Commercial in AdAge, "That Buick commercial tested very well, which is not the same as saying that it's an effective ad." Ouch!

Actually, the whole numbers thing has gotten out of control. Here is a killer example:

Research indicates:
The use of antidepressants is likely to account for only 10% of the fall in suicide rates among middle aged and older people.

Research indicates:
Suicide rate increasing; largest increase seen in middle-aged whites.

Which statement is true? Well research indicates that both statements are accurate. It just depends upon what study you read. Or what country the study was conducted in. Or what form of suicide is being studied in the study.

But wait. Both of those findings have the same source: Science Daily. Huh? One was done in April. One was done in October. Seven months can mean a lifetime of change. Numbers? Don’t trust ‘em. For sure, don’t use some voodoo metric or gyroanalytic indicator for your sole decision support. Not today. Not with the velocity of change going on in the real world.

Make it more like this: "Hey, black teens are wearing Timberlands in the summertime in Bed-Sty. Get the brand onto blacklanet.com, rapidimente".

It’s not in the data, Sparky. It’s out there -- out in the world, where the only number that counts is number one. You people painting ads by the numbers need to rethink your strategies. Numbers inform big ideas. Numbers do not define big ideas. Save your numbers to define the results of big ideas.

Now I’m not saying numbers don’t count. When Jared Fogel started eating Subway turkey sandwiches he was 425 lbs. That number counts. When he was done he was down to 194 lbs. That number counts. It took just 340 days. That number counts. Subway sales went through the roof as a result of that big idea. Those numbers count. How many people thought Jared was “dorky” had nothing to do with it. Or how many people believed the hoax that Jared died last year after it went viral.

But how do we KNOW this idea will work? How do we KNOW red is the right color? How do we KNOW people won’t be offended by a Chinese guy and a white girl? How do we KNOW people will want what happens in Vegas to stay in Vegas? How do we KNOW Michael Jackson is right for Pepsi? What has he done lately? How do we KNOW $95 million will pay off for Coke? I mean “American Idol"? That sounds pretty corny to me. How do we KNOW that people singing to their adhesive bandages will be memorable? I think we should test it.